Harris vs. Trump may go down in history as the 'trial elections' – the world will hope a settlement is reached tonight

Politicians and people around the world are holding their breath to see who wins the US presidential election on Tuesday. Will it be a second term for Republican Donald Trump? Or a victory for Democrat Kamala Harris, who would be the first woman POTUS, and only the second person of color?

Unlike Britain, where a prime minister can be removed from Downing Street overnight after a general election, there will be a transition period. The next president won’t take office until Inauguration Day – January 20, 2025.

But when will we know who the next president will be? Recent precedents suggest that we may not know the night after the polls close, but several days or even weeks later – especially if the outcome looks close this time, as is widely predicted.

Recent Delays – and What Happened Before

In 2000, election day was November 7, but George W. Bush was not elected president until December 13. That’s when his Democratic opponent Al Gore conceded after the U.S. Supreme Court overruled the Florida Supreme Court 5-4 to block a recount in what was then a swing state.

We’ll never know who actually got the most votes in the Sunshine State – there was probably a few hundred votes in there.

The fact is that Florida gave Bush victory in the Electoral College by a vote of 271 to 266, even though Gore received half a million more votes than him nationally.

In the last election in 2020, I wasn’t able to ‘call’ the election for Joe Biden on Sky News, along with other major news networks, until the Saturday after Tuesday’s vote, four days later.

Donald Trump continued to insist he had won. His supporters launched multiple legal challenges to try to overturn the results in swing states like Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona. That failed, but on January 6, 2021, a violent pro-Trump mob stormed the US Capitol to prevent Vice President Mike Pence from officially certifying the result as a victory for Biden.

Despite these examples in recent years, the winner in modern American elections is usually known within a few hours of counting.

By convention, the result will be accepted everywhere once one of the two candidates admits defeat and when the Associated Press (AP), the 170-year-old nonpartisan American news service, “declares a winner.”

AP will announce a total of 5,000 election results next week. It is estimated that about seven hours after counting begins on the East Coast – around 1am in Washington DC and 6am in London on Wednesday, November 6 – there could be evidence of a clear presidential winner. That will only work if Harris or Trump are comfortably ahead in election results across the country.

If it looks like Trump has won outright, Kamala Harris can be expected to concede in the wee hours, just like Hillary Clinton did in 2016. A shocked Mrs. Clinton called an equally surprised Trump to congratulate him and then delivered a formal concession speech for her supporters. a few hours later.

A close race could end as the ‘process elections’

This time, Trump has said, “I want a landslide.” He also promised: “If I do that (lose) and it’s free and fair, then I will absolutely accept the results.” We’ll see. He did not concede in 2020 and still falsely maintains that he won then. Amazingly, a majority of Republican voters say they agree with him.

All polls suggest that this will be a very close election. If it looks like Trump will narrowly lose because one or two swing states turn against him, he will do what he can to sow distrust, delay the election of Harris as the winner, and perhaps ultimately reverse his election defeat. to make.

That’s why insiders call this the “process election.” Both sides are assembling huge legal teams ready to take on the fight. The Trump campaign is recalling conservative lawyers who acted for him in 2020. It is claimed that there are 230,000 volunteers on the lookout in swing states.

To lead her legal team, Harris has recruited Dana Remus, a former White House counsel, and Marc Elias, a tough litigator who has won cases that have opened the door for Democrats to have their own “dark money” for lawsuits to counter the money. from pro-Trump billionaires like Elon Musk.

Of course, if Harris is narrowly defeated and Democrats suspect foul play, Democrats could also challenge certain results. Unlike Republicans, however, they have not openly discussed this as a backdoor victory tactic.

Trump and his supporters are laying the groundwork for distrust about the outcome this year. They already claim there is “cheating” and “voter fraud” in early voting. They claim in advance that these are “rigged elections” against them.

More than 200 lawsuits have been filed regarding voter identity, voting by mail, voting machines, foreign interference and intimidation.

Voters must be U.S. citizens. This year, complaints from Trump supporters center on accusations that illegal immigrants are managing to cast their votes.

2020 was a chaotic and improvised trial period that exposed the tactics that could be used to handle another Trump defeat. The Republicans are better organized this time.

The obstacles between the elections and the inauguration

There are options to undo or delay the process at any stage in the weeks leading up to the inauguration.

Each state has until December 11 to certify the results. This could be countered by successfully claiming that the vote was not conducted properly or that the ballots were cast by people who are not eligible to vote. But none of Trump’s complaints about voting irregularities were upheld in 2020.

Local election boards could also refuse to announce the results. This used to be unknown in America, but it has happened more than 20 times in eight states since 2020.

However, federal law has been reformed so that only state governors have final authority to certify unless a court orders otherwise, requiring Congress to consider their certifications as conclusive. So far, even Republican governors have moved ahead with certification.

Technically, the votes cast by the electorate matter because they determine, state by state, who makes up the Electoral College that “chooses” the president. It has 538 members, so a candidate needs 270 to win. All but two states allocate their electors based on the winner-takes-all method, to the candidate who receives the most votes in their state.

If neither candidate reaches the 270 mark and the Electoral College as a whole cannot complete certification, the general election results will be invalid. The House of Representatives elects the president through a so-called Contingent Election.

This is done on the basis of one vote per state. Republicans now control more state delegations and will likely do so after next week’s elections. In contingent elections, the 100-member U.S. Senate chooses the vice president, who can come from the other party.

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Then comes the fateful date of January 6, when the Vice President and the newly elected Congress meet to certify the new President. Assuming Harris had avoided a contingent election, it is still possible that a Republican-majority Congress could refuse to certify her victory even though she will preside as the outgoing vice president. This is presumably what Trump was referring to during his rally at Madison Square Garden when he said he and Mike Johnson, the Republican chairman, “have a secret… I’ll tell you what it is when the race is over.”

If the election results are challenged, legal proceedings at every level are a certainty.

Should the argument reach the conservative-dominated U.S. Supreme Court, all indications are that Trump will get a sympathetic hearing; he appointed three of its members.

In the meantime, if uncertainty remains about the outcome, there is a risk of widespread civil unrest.

That’s the best reason to hope that the US presidential election will be decided that evening or very shortly afterwards.