In Africa, expectations are meager and there is some hope for a second Trump presidency

ABUJA, Nigeria (AP) — African leaders may have been quick to act congratulate Donald Trump on his electionwho professes a desire for mutually beneficial partnerships, but there are slim expectations that his presidency will turn things around for this continent of more than 1.4 billion people.

In the wake of Trump’s victory, Kenya’s William Ruto said his country “stands ready” to deepen ties with Washington. Nigeria’s Bola Tinubu spoke of a second Trump administration that would usher in an era of “serious, useful and reciprocal” cooperation.

Yet observers say that African countries – once described by Trump as ‘shithole countries’ – will certainly not be high on his to-do list.

American foreign policy has not made Africa a priority for a long time – apart from seeing the continent through the lens of opposing rivals like Russia and Chinasaid Charles Ray, chairman of the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Africa Program.

President Joe Biden spoke of Africa as a key partner, said Ray, who served as U.S. ambassador to Zimbabwe from 2009 to 2012.

But not much action followed these words.

Africa “will be right at the bottom of (Trump’s) priority list” and any US action on the continent would likely be driven by his “transactional, ego-driven leadership style,” Ray added.

Many experts agree, citing Trump’s “America First” strategy.

Murithi Mutiga, Africa program director at the Crisis Group, said the president-elect “is a committed isolationist and clearly wants to withdraw” on several fronts around the world.

J. Peter Pham, Trump’s former special envoy to the Great Lakes and Sahel regions of Africa, says Trump’s next presidency may look for a “win-win” situation in Africa.

That could include a renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act, which grants eligible African countries duty-free access to U.S. markets, Pham said during a Voice of America broadcast.

However, U.S. lawmakers have raised questions about whether African countries are adhering to the terms of the program — or whether they are undermining U.S. foreign policy and national security interests, Pham said.

South Africa, one of the biggest beneficiaries of the program, was accused by US Ambassador Reuben Brigety in 2023 of supplying weapons and ammunition to Russia for its war in Ukraine and her professed neutral position on the war was questioned.

In principle, you can’t kick America in the teeth in a way that raises questions about compliance with such deals, Pham said.

Those who do “will be treated like pariahs,” says Ray of the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

The biggest concern is that the next Trump presidency will cut funding. In many parts of Africa, such cuts could be critical for millions of girls and young women whose reproductive health and choices are heavily supported by U.S.-funded programs.

“The situation is already bad for girls (and) without these services it will be a disaster,” said Valentine Damitoni, an 18-year-old mother.

She regularly visits a local clinic in the Zimbabwean capital Harare to obtain a contraceptive under a US-funded program that will allow her to return to school without fear of becoming pregnant again.

Max Primorac, a former acting deputy director of the US Agency for International Development – ​​one of Africa’s largest development aid donors – criticized some of the agency’s programs in Project 2025, a 900-page blueprint proposed by the conservative-leaning Heritage Foundation to reform the federal government.

In particular, Primorac criticized USAID programs that “promote abortion, climate extremism and interventions against alleged systemic racism.” It is said that the document are closely aligned with Trump’s vision – even though he has distanced himself from it.

Kiron Skinner, head of policy planning at the US State Department during Trump’s first term, recommends in the document that America should “focus on basic security, economic and human rights” in Africa rather than “radical abortion and pro-discrimination to impose. -LGBT initiatives.”

In Africa volatile Sahel regionsoldiers are becoming more and more the eradication of elected presidents and using anti-Western sentiments to sever ties with old allies like the United States and France – while turning to a new friend: Russia.

China, which provides infrastructure loans to African countries as a mutually beneficial partnership, rarely interferes in the internal politics of the recipient countries. Russia, the continent’s largest arms supplier, is often in bed with Africa’s military juntas.

Both countries, like America, have shown enormous interest in Africa’s rich mineral resources.