Florida faces the threat of a likely hurricane next week, forecasters say

The National Hurricane Center expects the next tropical depression or storm to form in the Caribbean soon, and forecast models predict it will develop into a hurricane and threaten Florida next week.

From the hurricane center’s tropical outlook at 7 a.m., the broad area of ​​low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea produced a large area of ​​showers and thunderstorms.

“Environmental conditions are conducive to development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within a few days as the system slowly moves westward into the western Caribbean Sea,” forecasters said. “After that, further development is likely as the disturbance meanders across the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend.”

Whether it develops or not, the system is expected to dump rain on Jamaica and then slowly turn northwestward early next week as it moves toward the western Caribbean and approaches Central America. It is then forecast to move towards Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula and approach the Gulf of Mexico.

The hurricane center gives it a 90% chance of developing in the next two to seven days, and it could become Tropical Storm Sara.

It officially became Invest 99-L on Tuesday, setting off a wave of long-term forecasting models that look beyond seven days. The majority of these show that hurricane strength could increase and make its way to Florida by the middle of next week.

The models’ intensity range as of Wednesday morning varies, with some expecting it to approach the strength of a major hurricane as it approaches the Florida peninsula.

Several of the model trails extend from the Big Bend area to South Florida, close to shore on Tuesday and making landfall on Wednesday.

Forecasters in the Tampa Bay area, which is still recovering from Hurricanes Helene and Milton, said it is too early to say where the storm will go but urged residents to keep an eye on forecasts keep.

The hurricane center won’t start forecasting a forecast path until it becomes at least a tropical depression, and then won’t forecast until five days from now.

If the storm turns around and hits Florida, it could become the fourth named storm to hit the state’s Gulf Coast this hurricane season, following Hurricanes Debby, Helene and Milton.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has seen 17 named storms to date, 11 of which became hurricanes, five of which became major hurricanes of Category 3 or stronger.

The season runs from June 1 to November. 30.

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