Hurricane Sara coming? NHC, AccuWeather follows possible path

The developing cluster of showers and thunderstorms over the Caribbean now has a name. The National Hurricane Center is following Invest99L as it moves over the central Caribbean Sea, giving the tropical rain storm a 90% chance of developing into a tropical depression over the next two days.

That’s what AccuWeather forecasters say it will likely be named Tropical Storm Saraand could potentially threaten Florida as a major hurricane next week.

“There is the potential for the rainstorm to happen intensify into a hurricane as early as Friday morning,” AccuWeather forecasters said. “Further intensification is expected thereafter, with a major Category 3 hurricane (maximum sustained winds of 110 mph or greater) likely to hit the western Caribbean this weekend.”

“We’re probably going to have to deal with a hurricane going into this weekend. There is increasing confidence that a tropical storm will develop in the central and western Caribbean later this week,” AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said in an email message. “Under these very favorable conditions, we could be dealing with a storm that could quickly become a major hurricane. The atmosphere is ready for development.”

The wave is on track to approach the same area of warm water that produced Hurricanes Rafael, Milton and Helene. What happens next depends on the position of a high-pressure dome along the southern Atlantic coast.

If high pressure stays where it is, it will likely push the storm toward Central America or southeastern Mexico later this weekend and into next week, AccuWeather said.
If the high-pressure dome clears or weakens, a steering breeze could direct the storm toward the Florida Keys and South Florida or along the Gulf Coast.

DaSilva said the speed of development and early monitoring could influence landfall and immediate impacts.

“Not only does this have a significant chance of becoming a hurricane, but it could become a major hurricane very quickly,” he said.

Meanwhile, remnants of Rafael are expected to merge with a cold front moving across the U.S. Wednesday and Thursday, bringing heavy rain to Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Tennessee and the tip of the Florida Panhandle. The northern Gulf Coast, including Florida, can expect high surf and dangerous currents.

➤ Spaghetti models for Invest99L

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Next named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season would be Sarah.

Here’s the latest update from the NHC as of Wednesday, November 12 at 1 a.m. EST:

Spaghetti models for Invest99L, future Tropical Storm Sara

Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations cover a range of forecasting tools and models, and they are not all the same. The hurricane center uses only the four or five best-performing models to help make its forecasts.

➤ Spaghetti models for Invest99L

What you need to know about Invest99L

Central and Western Caribbean Sea (AL99): A broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive to development and a tropical depression is likely to form in the coming days as the system slowly moves westward into the western Caribbean Sea.

After that, further development is likely as the disturbance meanders across the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend. The system is expected to slowly turn northwestward early next week. Interests in the western and northwestern Caribbean Seas should monitor the progress of this system.

Regardless of the development, heavy rain showers are expected over Jamaica in the coming days.

Probability of formation during 48 hours: high, 90 percent.
Probability of formation during seven days: high, 90 percent.

How will Invest99L impact Florida?

It’s too early to tell if this will be the case, although some models suggest it could turn a corner and hit the state.

Storm-killing wind shear will initially prevent the northward movement of any developing feature in the Caribbean Sea, AccuWeather said. “However, the natural blocking mechanism could dissipate by the third week of the month and allow any tropical storm to move north, in which case interests in South Florida and the Keys may need to remain vigilant,” the spokesperson said. AccuWeather meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.

National Hurricane Center Map: What Else Is and How Likely are They to Strengthen?

Systems currently monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:

What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?

The shaded areas on a tropical scout map “indicate areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said Jamie Rhome, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center.

The colors make it visibly clear how likely it is that a system can develop where yellow is low, orange is middle and red is high.

The National Hurricane Center generally does not issue a tropical advisory until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.

“If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center will not wait before issuing an advisory, even if the system has not become a full-blown storm. This gives residents time to prepare Rhome said.

Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida

When is hurricane season in Florida?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

The Atlantic Basin includes the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

Interactive map: hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city

Excessive rainfall forecast

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What’s next?

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(This story has been updated with new information.)