Endless stream of storms draining Philippine GDP and household incomes

Typhoon Nika (international name: Toraji), the fourteenth storm to hit the Philippines in 2024, has not yet left the Philippine Area of ​​Responsibility (PAR), or even the Luzon landmass, when a new one was seen entering the Philippines and threatened the region. northern region of the island.

As the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said on the day Nika made landfall in Dilasag, Aurora, Ofel (international name: Usagi) will enter PAR on Tuesday (Nov 12). That happened and was seen at 3 a.m. that day 1,125 kilometers east of Eastern Visayas.

A few days later, on Thursday (November 14), Ofel strengthened into a super typhoon and made landfall in Baggao, Cagayan at 1:30 p.m., prompting the evacuation of thousands of individuals, most of whom were still reeling from the devastation left behind by Typhoon Marce. (international name: Yinxing), which hit the province on November 7.

But as Ofel weakened, a new storm, Pepito (international name: Many-yi), entered the PAR and is expected to make landfall “at peak intensity” over the east coast of Central and/or Southern Luzon this weekend. Pagasa said Pepito could become a typhoon within the next 12 hours.

How much more can the Philippines, or Luzon, take?

Typhoon’s way

According to the website Science Direct, an average of 20 typhoons, or 25 percent of the world’s typhoons, enter the Philippines every year. Of the twenty, five are considered catastrophic, while an average of nine make landfall.

Nika, who severely ravaged the provinces of Aurora and Isabela, is the 14th to enter the PAR this year, after Aghon, Butchoy, Carina, Dindo, Enteng, Ferdie, Gener, Helen, Igme, Julian, Kristine, Leon and Marce.

But while fewer typhoons have made their way to PAR in recent years, Pagasa pointed out that those that do have become stronger.

According to the latest World Risk Index, the Philippines remains the most disaster-prone country in the world for the sixteenth year in a row, with a score of 46.91 in 2024, compared to 46.86 last year.

This was the reason for Environment Minister Ma. Antonia Yulo Loyzaga says the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources has worked “strategically”, especially with local governments, to protect lives and livelihoods.

PH economy affected

This year, before Nika’s passage through northern Luzon, 13 typhoons have already caused more than P30 billion in damage to agriculture and infrastructure, based on data collected by INQFocus of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council.

Kristine and Leon, which devastated the Bicol region, Calabarzon and Batanes province, left the most damage: P17.60 billion and 160 deaths, the government said.

Based on research conducted by the Asian Development Bank, strong typhoons are likely to reduce economic activity by almost three percent, while frequent and low-damaging typhoons are expected to cause a one percent reduction.

However, the severity varies widely by region, with Eastern Visayas and Cagayan Valley expected to suffer the greatest losses, the ADB said in its study based on night light intensity evidence.

A few years ago, the ADB also shared that typhoons cost the Philippines about $20 billion between 1990 and 2020. These included some of the strongest typhoons to hit the country: Rolly, Yolanda, Ferdie, Juan and Iliang.

Loss of lives, livelihood

Since Aghon, the first to hit the Philippines this year, 266 people have died from typhoon-related causes: Aghon (6), Butchoy & Carina (48), Enteng (21), Ferdie, Gener, Helen & Igme (25), Julian ( 5), Kristine & Leon (160) and Marce (1).

But typhoons not only claim lives, their wrath also damages livelihoods.

Household incomes in the Philippines have fallen by an average of seven percent due to typhoons, according to a new peer-reviewed study from international research organization Climate Analytics.

It stated that in some cases, in some provinces such as Surigao del Norte, Maguindanao, Batangas and Cavite, typhoons reduced household income by more than 20 percent.

As previously noted by World Bank Chief Economist Souleymane Coulibaly, climate change, manifested by rising temperatures, rising sea levels, more intense droughts and stronger typhoons, will significantly threaten the economy.

-In collaboration with ANN